Luck vs. RGIII?

[Lanky Livingston]

Originally Posted by Rymanofthenorth

btw David Carr is the example that I think most fits here, he was lauded as the saviour for the texans, played behind a good run blocking but poor pass protecting line, took a beating and never recovered.

A "savior" for the Texans? In their very first season of existence?

[Lanky Livingston]

Originally Posted by Rymanofthenorth

Lanky, your argument about the style of football is not only facetious but fallacious. Look at how many Big 12 QB's put up massive numbers, I am not talking about in the past century but the past 10 seasons even, I cant name ONE good QB in the NFL who came out of the big 12 even though the Big 12 has had several QB's who put up ridiculous numbers in a conference that supposedly only recently " added the forward pass".

I can see why guys like Boone and Neo are excited, even on film the kid looks like he is moving at another speed, I am almost swayed by how pretty of a pass he throws and how often he hits guys in stride, but windows in the NFL are not the same in College, Andre Ware threw a nice ball, Mike Vick and Randall Cunningham were both pretty crazy fast and had BIG arms. What Concerns me is precedent COMBINED with stats. If it was an eyeball test, he is a bit small and not very thick but that would be offset by his startling athleticism, if it was a film test, he passes easily because his film hilites are awesome to watch, but his quality of competition defencively worries me massively.

I also worry about the added pressure he has now with being our Saviour, and I am more worried that we lack a true LT and a great pass protecting line, I am hopeful that the huge chunk of money we spent on a receiver wasnt wasted, but I still think a true possession receiver will be key and im hopeful that morgan or hank becomes that guy. just too many ifs for my blood.

So you refute my argument with no proof. Not even one counter example, Ryman?

[Miles Monroe]

Originally Posted by Rymanofthenorth

I cant name ONE good QB in the NFL who came out of the big 12 even though the Big 12 has had several QB's who put up ridiculous numbers in a conference that supposedly only recently " added the forward pass".

In this world we live, there's a first for everything....

[Kel Varnsen]

I voted for Luck because he's is widely viewed as the best QB prospect in a long time. So why not go with the best. People are forgetting how athletic Luck is and that his combine numbers compared with Cam Newton's from last year. I also like how I hear that he is great at reading defenses pre-snap and adjusting. That is very Brady and Manning esque as they are the best at that. I know that's high comparison, but if I'm going to dream I'm going to dream big.

I fully expect the Skins to end up with Griffin. When he declared for the draft, my first thought was "Hail to the Redskins!". I didn't know then we would have to trade so much to get him, but I had a feeling he would end up in DC.

I'm ecstatic about the thought of getting either one of them. We are about to watch a QB that is far better than anything we have seen in Burgundy and Gold since before I was born. My hope is that the Colts choose the wrong one and we choose the right one.

[Boone]

Amen Kel.

Amen.

[Fear The Spear]

It really is a win-win situation. At least from the on-set of the actual pick. There will be reason to initially celebrate either way. But the future can certainly change that win-win situation

[Jugband McGillicuddy]

Here's the question. Do you want the next John Elway? Or do you want the next Warren Moon? You can't go wrong either way. You just can't. But there are a few things, some major some much less so, that have put me solidly in the RGIII camp.

First of all, the kid is smart. I don't just mean football smarts, he's an intelligent squared-away young man. Yeah, I know. Luck is too. You don't go to Stanford, even to play football, if you're a dip****. But Griffin just has something else to him in that regard. He's got practical intelligence both on and off the field. That matters.

Also, Griffin throws an excellent deep ball. I just want to see ONE of those again. I'm tired of worm burners, or balls that a telephone pole couldn't catch. Let me see just once more a ball dropped into a receiver's bread basket from 50 yards, and scoring without a defender in the frame.

Griffin can also throw those intermediate and short routes. I just feel like no matter what he needs to do with the ball, he can do it. And athleticism? Hell, comparing Luck and Griffin is like comparing me and Roy Helu. (OK, not quite THAT bad.)

And finally, intangibles. I like Griffin. He's got the right amount of both cockiness and humility. And he's thoughtful. Read about his proposal to his fiancee sometime. Touching as all get out. He's just a good young man. One of those guys that makes you stick your chest out and say, "yeah, this kid is the leader of my team."

I have to admit, I'll be disappointed if we take Luck. He seems sterile and unpolished to me when I hear him speak. And though I love what he can do physically, he just doesn't have that "it" to me. I grant that they haven't found a combine test to measure "it" yet, but if they did, Griffin would set a record that will never be broken.

For these reasons, and others, I think the COLTS should take RGIII. I think anyone with the opportunity should. I pray that they don't. And when/if I hear that they've agreed to terms with Luck, I can only hope I survive the largest adrenaline rush my system has ever experienced.

[RG3 Fan]

Originally Posted by Rymanofthenorth

Lanky, your argument about the style of football is not only facetious but fallacious. Look at how many Big 12 QB's put up massive numbers, I am not talking about in the past century but the past 10 seasons even, I cant name ONE good QB in the NFL who came out of the big 12 even though the Big 12 has had several QB's who put up ridiculous numbers in a conference that supposedly only recently " added the forward pass".

I can see why guys like Boone and Neo are excited, even on film the kid looks like he is moving at another speed, I am almost swayed by how pretty of a pass he throws and how often he hits guys in stride, but windows in the NFL are not the same in College, Andre Ware threw a nice ball, Mike Vick and Randall Cunningham were both pretty crazy fast and had BIG arms. What Concerns me is precedent COMBINED with stats. If it was an eyeball test, he is a bit small and not very thick but that would be offset by his startling athleticism, if it was a film test, he passes easily because his film hilites are awesome to watch, but his quality of competition defencively worries me massively.

I also worry about the added pressure he has now with being our Saviour, and I am more worried that we lack a true LT and a great pass protecting line, I am hopeful that the huge chunk of money we spent on a receiver wasnt wasted, but I still think a true possession receiver will be key and im hopeful that morgan or hank becomes that guy. just too many ifs for my blood.

RG3 throws the deep ball better than anyone, RG3 is faster than any previous Big12 QB, RG3 was great his freshman year but has progressed amazingly. Durability is my only concern.

[DallasNotlaw]

Originally Posted by Rymanofthenorth

Luck and its not close, the big 12 has never produced a HOF qb ever, I dont think its produced a pro bowler, with what we risked, if our pick busts we get another 5 years of crapulence.

The Big 12 was founded in 1996...pretty small sample size you're working with here....especially if you're talking about the HOF.

[RG3 Fan]

Don't worry about him handling pressure. He had tremendous pressure leading scrappy little Baylor to a ten win season. Few interceptions, runs we're often called plays, and he had to constantly adjust and ad lib on the field due to pressure. Great leader with the "it" factor.

[Rymanofthenorth]

Originally Posted by Lanky Livingston

So you refute my argument with no proof. Not even one counter example, Ryman?

there is no counter example, you are simply wrong, not just slightly but massively, perhaps you could have been correct in the early nineties, but for the ast several years the big 12 has had several teams known for putting up huge passing numbers, texas, texas tech,Oklahoma, all have had qbs put up serious numbers in college. I dont have a counter example, I just have the facts.

Among Big 12 teams, Kansas was ranked last nationally at 120. Others were Texas Tech (114), Oklahoma State (105) and Iowa State (95). The only Big 12 team that ranked above 55 was Texas at 11.
Baylor's opponent in the Alamo Bowl was Washington. Baylor beat the Huskies, who were 106th in total defense, 67-56.

Quarterbacks from the Big 12 struggled in the NFL in 2011. None were rated higher than 26th. None were in the playoffs, or even had a winning record.

[Rymanofthenorth]

Originally Posted by RG3 Fan

Don't worry about him handling pressure. He had tremendous pressure leading scrappy little Baylor to a ten win season. Few interceptions, runs we're often called plays, and he had to constantly adjust and ad lib on the field due to pressure. Great leader with the "it" factor.

the pressure of leading Baylor is nothing compared to what he is in for in DC.

[fansince62]

funny thread...not one person addresses basic stuff like throwing motion. who seems to have the more natural motion?

we reprised the arguments about who is the better fit for which team a thousand times - the driving factor for me. I happen to think Luck is the better QB....but RGIII the better fit for the Redskins.

[fansince62]

Originally Posted by DallasNotlaw

The Big 12 was founded in 1996...pretty small sample size you're working with here....especially if you're talking about the HOF.

15 years x the number of teams x the number of QBs x the number of games played? are you kidding? I've seen government statistics with less credible sample sizes!!!!

Ry is correct in noting a pattern in the statistics. I find it amusing that folks who are very fond of arguing statistics in other football venues don't see the difference between statistical patterns and causal explanations.

[Goaldeje]

Originally Posted by fansince62

Ry is correct in noting a pattern in the statistics. I find it amusing that folks who are very fond of arguing statistics in other football venues don't see the difference between statistical patterns and causal explanations.

Could have sworn I posted this in another thread, but now I can't find. Here's some statistical analysis for Ry.

Six years ago, Football Outsiders unveiled the college quarterback projection system known as the Lewin Career Forecast. Originally, the LCF projected the success of first- and second-round quarterbacks using just college games started and college completion percentage. Going back -- including when looking at quarterbacks from the years before the data set used to create it -- it had a strong record. After 2006, the record was not so strong. So last year, we debuted an updated version of the forecast, LCF v2.0.

The new version of the Lewin Career Forecast is built to apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first three rounds of the draft. After that, quarterback success and failure becomes too difficult to predict. Part of the concept of the system is that scouts will do a good enough job identifying "system quarterbacks" so that those quarterbacks whose college stats are much better than their pro potential will naturally fall to the third day of the draft.

There are seven variables involved in LCF v2.0:
•Career college games started, with a minimum of 20 and a maximum of 48.
•Career completion rate; however, this is now a logrithmic variable. As a quarterback's completion percentage goes down, the penalty for low completion percentage gets gradually larger. As a result, the bonus for exceedingly accurate quarterbacks such as Tim Couch and Brian Brohm is smaller than the penalty for inaccurate quarterbacks such as Kyle Boller and Tarvaris Jackson.
•Difference between the quarterback's BMI and 28.0. This creates a small penalty for quarterbacks who don't exactly conform to the "ideal quarterback size."
•For quarterbacks who come out as seniors, the difference in NCAA passer rating between their junior and senior seasons. (For quarterbacks who come out as juniors or redshirt sophomores, this variable is always 5.0, which is the average increase for the seniors in our data set.)
•A binary variable that penalizes quarterbacks who don't play for a team in a BCS-qualifying conference.
•Run-pass ratio in the quarterback's final college season, with a maximum of 0.5.
•Total rushing yards in the quarterback's final college season, with a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 600.

These last two variables work together to penalize both quarterbacks who scramble too often and quarterbacks who take a lot of sacks (since sacks are negative runs in college), while pocket quarterbacks who are successful when they do run get a bonus.

Robert Griffin, Baylor: 2,530 DYAR

Important stats: 40 games started, 67.0% completion rate, senior passer rating rose 45.3 points, 161 carries for 644 yards.

Andrew Luck, Stanford: 1,749 DYAR

Important stats: 37 games started, 66.4% completion rate, senior passer rating dropped -0.5 points, 47 carries for 150 yards.

Robert Griffin comes out with the strongest LCF projection of any quarterback we've measured. Here are the top ten quarterbacks by LCF projection since 1998:



Player

Year

LCF



Robert Griffin

2012

2530



Philip Rivers

2004

2476



Drew Brees

2001

2190



Colt McCoy

2010

2092



Carson Palmer

2003

1973



Peyton Manning

1998

1784



Andrew Luck

2012

1749



Chad Pennington

2000

1678



Brady Quinn

2007

1518



Jason Campbell

2005

1506


Griffin and Luck are basically LCF's dream candidates. They're both longtime starters with tons of college experience. Both have strong completion rates. Both get good yardage when scrambling. The biggest difference between the two according to LCF is what happened in their senior year. Luck, who was stellar as a junior, saw his passer rating stay constant. Griffin, on the other hand, improved significantly. The 45.3-point rise in his passer rating as a senior is largest senior improvement in our database (surpassing Jason Campbell, who rose 40.3 points) and the second-largest senior change in our database (behind only Rex Grossman, whose passer rating as a senior dropped 49.3 points). Statistically, Griffin's senior year was better than Luck's, his junior year not as good. This could indicate that Griffin is still improving, still learning, and still getting better, with more room to grow in the pros. Of course, it also could indicate that Griffin's 2011 season was a little fluky, and one of the arguments I've read against Griffin as a can't-miss prospect is that most scouts didn't have him as a first-round pick before his senior season. With all due respect to those scouts, it was pretty obvious within the first two or three games of the year that they were wrong. And even if Griffin's passer rating as a senior had stayed the same as his passer rating as a junior, Griffin would still have this year's highest LCF projection at 1,994.

Again, this little statistical exercise is not definitive proof that the Colts should draft Griffin over Luck. What's important here is that both quarterbacks come out as top prospects, and unlike with Colt McCoy, the scouting reports match the statistical projection.

One last note: The argument against "Luck and Griffin are about as close to can't miss as quarterback prospects can be" is not "well, people said the same thing about Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf." We know more now than we did then. Leaf started only 24 games and completed just 55.4 percent of his passes in college. His LCF projection is at -407. If Football Outsiders had been around in 1998, we would have been arguing that Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf weren't even in the same universe as prospects.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl...-forecast-2012