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View Poll Results: Which QB do you WANT under center in 2012?

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  • Andrew Luck

    4 9.76%
  • Robert Griffin III

    37 90.24%
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Thread: Luck vs. RGIII?

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lanky Livingston View Post
    So you refute my argument with no proof. Not even one counter example, Ryman?
    there is no counter example, you are simply wrong, not just slightly but massively, perhaps you could have been correct in the early nineties, but for the ast several years the big 12 has had several teams known for putting up huge passing numbers, texas, texas tech,Oklahoma, all have had qbs put up serious numbers in college. I dont have a counter example, I just have the facts.

    Among Big 12 teams, Kansas was ranked last nationally at 120. Others were Texas Tech (114), Oklahoma State (105) and Iowa State (95). The only Big 12 team that ranked above 55 was Texas at 11.
    Baylor's opponent in the Alamo Bowl was Washington. Baylor beat the Huskies, who were 106th in total defense, 67-56.

    Quarterbacks from the Big 12 struggled in the NFL in 2011. None were rated higher than 26th. None were in the playoffs, or even had a winning record.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RG3 Fan View Post
    Don't worry about him handling pressure. He had tremendous pressure leading scrappy little Baylor to a ten win season. Few interceptions, runs we're often called plays, and he had to constantly adjust and ad lib on the field due to pressure. Great leader with the "it" factor.
    the pressure of leading Baylor is nothing compared to what he is in for in DC.

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    funny thread...not one person addresses basic stuff like throwing motion. who seems to have the more natural motion?

    we reprised the arguments about who is the better fit for which team a thousand times - the driving factor for me. I happen to think Luck is the better QB....but RGIII the better fit for the Redskins.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DallasNotlaw View Post
    The Big 12 was founded in 1996...pretty small sample size you're working with here....especially if you're talking about the HOF.
    15 years x the number of teams x the number of QBs x the number of games played? are you kidding? I've seen government statistics with less credible sample sizes!!!!

    Ry is correct in noting a pattern in the statistics. I find it amusing that folks who are very fond of arguing statistics in other football venues don't see the difference between statistical patterns and causal explanations.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fansince62 View Post
    Ry is correct in noting a pattern in the statistics. I find it amusing that folks who are very fond of arguing statistics in other football venues don't see the difference between statistical patterns and causal explanations.
    Could have sworn I posted this in another thread, but now I can't find. Here's some statistical analysis for Ry.

    Six years ago, Football Outsiders unveiled the college quarterback projection system known as the Lewin Career Forecast. Originally, the LCF projected the success of first- and second-round quarterbacks using just college games started and college completion percentage. Going back -- including when looking at quarterbacks from the years before the data set used to create it -- it had a strong record. After 2006, the record was not so strong. So last year, we debuted an updated version of the forecast, LCF v2.0.

    The new version of the Lewin Career Forecast is built to apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first three rounds of the draft. After that, quarterback success and failure becomes too difficult to predict. Part of the concept of the system is that scouts will do a good enough job identifying "system quarterbacks" so that those quarterbacks whose college stats are much better than their pro potential will naturally fall to the third day of the draft.

    There are seven variables involved in LCF v2.0:
    •Career college games started, with a minimum of 20 and a maximum of 48.
    •Career completion rate; however, this is now a logrithmic variable. As a quarterback's completion percentage goes down, the penalty for low completion percentage gets gradually larger. As a result, the bonus for exceedingly accurate quarterbacks such as Tim Couch and Brian Brohm is smaller than the penalty for inaccurate quarterbacks such as Kyle Boller and Tarvaris Jackson.
    •Difference between the quarterback's BMI and 28.0. This creates a small penalty for quarterbacks who don't exactly conform to the "ideal quarterback size."
    •For quarterbacks who come out as seniors, the difference in NCAA passer rating between their junior and senior seasons. (For quarterbacks who come out as juniors or redshirt sophomores, this variable is always 5.0, which is the average increase for the seniors in our data set.)
    •A binary variable that penalizes quarterbacks who don't play for a team in a BCS-qualifying conference.
    •Run-pass ratio in the quarterback's final college season, with a maximum of 0.5.
    •Total rushing yards in the quarterback's final college season, with a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 600.

    These last two variables work together to penalize both quarterbacks who scramble too often and quarterbacks who take a lot of sacks (since sacks are negative runs in college), while pocket quarterbacks who are successful when they do run get a bonus.
    Robert Griffin, Baylor: 2,530 DYAR

    Important stats: 40 games started, 67.0% completion rate, senior passer rating rose 45.3 points, 161 carries for 644 yards.

    Andrew Luck, Stanford: 1,749 DYAR

    Important stats: 37 games started, 66.4% completion rate, senior passer rating dropped -0.5 points, 47 carries for 150 yards.

    Robert Griffin comes out with the strongest LCF projection of any quarterback we've measured. Here are the top ten quarterbacks by LCF projection since 1998:



    Player

    Year

    LCF



    Robert Griffin

    2012

    2530



    Philip Rivers

    2004

    2476



    Drew Brees

    2001

    2190



    Colt McCoy

    2010

    2092



    Carson Palmer

    2003

    1973



    Peyton Manning

    1998

    1784



    Andrew Luck

    2012

    1749



    Chad Pennington

    2000

    1678



    Brady Quinn

    2007

    1518



    Jason Campbell

    2005

    1506


    Griffin and Luck are basically LCF's dream candidates. They're both longtime starters with tons of college experience. Both have strong completion rates. Both get good yardage when scrambling. The biggest difference between the two according to LCF is what happened in their senior year. Luck, who was stellar as a junior, saw his passer rating stay constant. Griffin, on the other hand, improved significantly. The 45.3-point rise in his passer rating as a senior is largest senior improvement in our database (surpassing Jason Campbell, who rose 40.3 points) and the second-largest senior change in our database (behind only Rex Grossman, whose passer rating as a senior dropped 49.3 points). Statistically, Griffin's senior year was better than Luck's, his junior year not as good. This could indicate that Griffin is still improving, still learning, and still getting better, with more room to grow in the pros. Of course, it also could indicate that Griffin's 2011 season was a little fluky, and one of the arguments I've read against Griffin as a can't-miss prospect is that most scouts didn't have him as a first-round pick before his senior season. With all due respect to those scouts, it was pretty obvious within the first two or three games of the year that they were wrong. And even if Griffin's passer rating as a senior had stayed the same as his passer rating as a junior, Griffin would still have this year's highest LCF projection at 1,994.

    Again, this little statistical exercise is not definitive proof that the Colts should draft Griffin over Luck. What's important here is that both quarterbacks come out as top prospects, and unlike with Colt McCoy, the scouting reports match the statistical projection.

    One last note: The argument against "Luck and Griffin are about as close to can't miss as quarterback prospects can be" is not "well, people said the same thing about Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf." We know more now than we did then. Leaf started only 24 games and completed just 55.4 percent of his passes in college. His LCF projection is at -407. If Football Outsiders had been around in 1998, we would have been arguing that Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf weren't even in the same universe as prospects.
    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl...-forecast-2012
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    Couldn't find the Either/Or choice.

    Today, neither one is a Redskin.

    After the second selection in the draft is official, one of them will be.

    That's the one I've always wanted from the start.
    "Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and **** the prom queen"

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    Quote Originally Posted by fansince62 View Post
    funny thread...not one person addresses basic stuff like throwing motion. who seems to have the more natural motion?

    we reprised the arguments about who is the better fit for which team a thousand times - the driving factor for me. I happen to think Luck is the better QB....but RGIII the better fit for the Redskins.
    Throwing motion is highly overrated except for the need for a quick release and consistent accuracy. RG3 excels in both of these areas. Of course he will face greater pressure in the NFL, but I am saying he is up to it. At the time he played Texas they had the 8th highest rated defensive secondary in the country. With the exception of the SEC there was not a conference with a better win/loss record in the bowls last year. Again, RG3 accomplished much with what he had. I am in no way diminishing what Luck did, just tired of the lack of respect for what RG3 accomplished. Ridiculous.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Goaldeje View Post
    Could have sworn I posted this in another thread, but now I can't find. Here's some statistical analysis for Ry.





    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl...-forecast-2012
    Thats actually a great post, however the presence of a couple guys on there disturbs me somewhat, would you spend 3 firsts and a second on campbell? Pennington? Quinn? Mccoy? Newton isnt even on that list lol. I love football outsiders, but like everything else it needs to be in context, and the context of Griffins stats is that they came in the worst conference defensively and that scares me.

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    In response to Rymanofthenorth, and the PAC 10 is known for its defense????

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rymanofthenorth View Post
    there is no counter example, you are simply wrong, not just slightly but massively, perhaps you could have been correct in the early nineties, but for the ast several years the big 12 has had several teams known for putting up huge passing numbers, texas, texas tech,Oklahoma, all have had qbs put up serious numbers in college. I dont have a counter example, I just have the facts.

    Among Big 12 teams, Kansas was ranked last nationally at 120. Others were Texas Tech (114), Oklahoma State (105) and Iowa State (95). The only Big 12 team that ranked above 55 was Texas at 11.
    Baylor's opponent in the Alamo Bowl was Washington. Baylor beat the Huskies, who were 106th in total defense, 67-56.

    Quarterbacks from the Big 12 struggled in the NFL in 2011. None were rated higher than 26th. None were in the playoffs, or even had a winning record.
    Clearly you don't understand the argument. Until RECENTLY the big 12 and the big 8 before it were primarily run first, they just were. There is no debating this. Oklahoma averaged somthing like 475 yards rushing a GAME when Barry Switzer was coaching. They were the strong defense, strong running game conference. I'm really not sure how you can deny this.

    The point being, its unfair to say "The Big 12 has never had a HOF QB," because QB wasn't primarily a passing position UNTIL RECENTLY. The last 10 years. EXACTLY WHAT YOU KEEP AGREEING WITH. Now, I'm not 100% positive, but I don't think there's a QB in the Hall of Fame with less than 10 years playing in the NFL. Just saying...

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    Quote Originally Posted by RG3 Fan View Post
    In response to Rymanofthenorth, and the PAC 10 is known for its defense????
    I'd say its much harder to stop elite college athletes than to beat an average college defense. So defenses as a whole will always be not as good as college defenses.
    Last edited by Lanky Livingston; 03-26-12 at 01:10 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RG3 Fan View Post
    Throwing motion is highly overrated except for the need for a quick release and consistent accuracy. RG3 excels in both of these areas. Of course he will face greater pressure in the NFL, but I am saying he is up to it. At the time he played Texas they had the 8th highest rated defensive secondary in the country. With the exception of the SEC there was not a conference with a better win/loss record in the bowls last year. Again, RG3 accomplished much with what he had. I am in no way diminishing what Luck did, just tired of the lack of respect for what RG3 accomplished. Ridiculous.

    who is "disrespecting" RGIII and why do you feel compelled to be his public defender?

    we'll be more than ecstatic to have robert griffin wearing the B&G.

    as for the quickness and accuracy...I have no doubts you are right. that said....we'll see how he does against an NFL rush. Just as the Colts will with Luck.

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    they're b a new sheriff in Washington soon and i hope it its RGIII.....Anyone else and i will be very disappointed...also
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    Quote Originally Posted by fansince62 View Post
    who is "disrespecting" RGIII and why do you feel compelled to be his public defender?

    we'll be more than ecstatic to have robert griffin wearing the B&G.

    as for the quickness and accuracy...I have no doubts you are right. that said....we'll see how he does against an NFL rush. Just as the Colts will with Luck.

    I didn't view it as him being a 'public defender' - I viewed him trying to balance some of the concerns expressed in this thread and others with what he's seen as a Baylor fan whose likely watched every snap of RG3's career.
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarolinaSkin43 View Post
    they're b a new sheriff in Washington soon and i hope it its RGIII.....Anyone else and i will be very disappointed...also

    that's a great thought! how long before RG shapes this team?

    can the Baylor fans cue us in on how RG will shape the culture of the team?

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    Being from Texas, with such a huge following of Cowboy fans, what if it turns out that Griffin is really a Cowboy spy, just coming to DC to infiltrate our system ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by RG3 Fan View Post
    Durability is my only concern.
    can you expand on that....my main concern as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boone View Post
    I didn't view it as him being a 'public defender' - I viewed him trying to balance some of the concerns expressed in this thread and others with what he's seen as a Baylor fan whose likely watched every snap of RG3's career.
    got it.....however....he said "disrespectful" and my immediate thought was "what the heck...disrespectful?"

    anywho....glad to have someone on board who can share knowledge about our future star QB!!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by fansince62 View Post
    that's a great thought! how long before RG shapes this team?

    can the Baylor fans cue us in on how RG will shape the culture of the team?
    Too many variables to accurately predict how long before RG3 shapes this team, but I will say that he will quickly win the respect of this teammates because no one will work harder and he has a knack for getting others to work harder as well. I haven't personally been around him, but you can just sense from the stands that the team has more swager and confidence when he is on the field.

    He is a confident, passionate guy about life and not just football. That positive passion is contagious. I have never seen anything quite like it. For those of you who didn't know, Baylor was successful in other sports in the Big 12, but in football we were the laughing stock in the Big 12. RG3 along with Coach Briles turned the program around. I believe we can keep the program going in the right direction, but we will definitely miss RG3's positive leadership.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fansince62 View Post
    can you expand on that....my main concern as well.
    RG3 has adequate size (6'2.5", good strength, and he is good at dodging defenders, but he is going into the NFC East (hopefully). I worry about any quarterback in this division. It is a tough place to be a quarterback. I think he can handle it as well as anyone. I don't think he will be stupid, but rookies often are. After his knee injury his sophomore year, he became much, much, more cautious. He is now definitely pass if at all possible.

    By the way, Mark Adickes (former Baylor Bear and Washington Redskin lineman) performed his knee surgery. Some say it is stronger than before the surgery.

 

 
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